Sunday, February 10, 2008

Those who cannot learn

from history are doomed to repeat it.

When this primary season opened, Romney and Giuliani were the favorites for the Republican Nomination.

They are both history. Romney dropped out at the right time for the right reasons, but what happened to Giuliani? How did he go from being a favorite to being out of the race so early?

Less than a month ago Giuliani was campaigning up a storm in Florida. Why Florida? Because it was the first "big prize" of the primary race, and Rudy's strategy was to sit out the early races and focus his resources on winning Florida.

But a funny little thing happened on the way to the Republican nomination. By sitting out the early races, Giuliani came to be viewed as a non-factor. From front runner to also-ran, by the time Florida came those very voters he was courting considered him out of the race. And all of the money he spent ($50 Million so far, a lot of that on Florida), and time he spent, got him third place in florida, just barely above Mike Huckabee who had spent like $20 plus a couple of free taco coupons campaigning in Florida.

Sitting out the little guys to wait for the big prize doesn't work. So why is Hillary's campaign trying the same thing? With each loss to Obama we hear "Hillary is focusing on the March contests in the big prize states" and I'm thinking that Giuliani is history, and Hillary is doomed to repeat his failure.

Hillary has been the democratic front runner pretty much since November 4, 2004. Now Obama is winning primaries and Hillary is playing the Giuliani game. "Just wait until March!" But by the time March rolls around, the voters in the very states she is counting on may view her as an also ran. The candidate with no momentum and no chance to win in November.

Just an observation.


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